Pattern Recognition

What does your data tell you? Finding actionable insights in your logs.

Beyond the Numbers

You've been collecting data for four weeks. Now it's time to read that data like a story. Pattern recognition is the skill of seeing meaningful connections that raw numbers don't immediately reveal.

Types of Patterns to Look For

Time-Based Patterns

Look at when things happen:

Day of Week

• Do you perform better on certain days?
• Are weekend sessions different from weekday?
• Does Monday (after rest) differ from Friday (accumulated fatigue)?

Time of Day

• Morning vs. evening sessions
• Do you have better focus at certain times?
• Energy levels throughout the day

Training Sequence

• Performance after rest days vs. consecutive training
• First round vs. later rounds
• Early in class vs. end of class

Physical State Patterns

Cross-reference your physical state ratings with performance:

Energy and Performance

Recovery Patterns

• How do you perform with adequate sleep vs. poor sleep?
• Impact of nutrition timing
• Effects of soreness/minor injuries

Partner-Based Patterns

Different partners reveal different things:

Size Matchups

• How do you do against bigger partners?
• Against smaller partners?
• Against similar size?

Skill Matchups

• Performance against higher belts
• Against peers
• Against newer students

Style Matchups

• Aggressive partners
• Technical partners
• Strong/athletic partners
• Flexible partners

Position-Based Patterns

Where does your game break down?

Recurring Position Problems

• "I always end up in side control bottom"
• "I can never finish from mount"
• "My guard keeps getting passed"

Position Success Patterns

• Which positions lead to your submissions?
• Where do your sweeps come from?
• What positions do you avoid?

Pattern Analysis Exercise

Take out your logs and answer these questions:

Session Patterns

My best sessions have in common:

---

My worst sessions have in common:

---

I train most often on: (day/time)

---

My performance is best when:

---

Sparring Patterns

I get submitted most often by: (technique)

---

This usually happens from: (position)

---

When I'm doing well in sparring, I'm:

---

When I'm struggling in sparring, I'm:

---

Technique Patterns

Techniques that are working:

1. ---

2. ---

What do these have in common?

---

Techniques that aren't working:

1. ---

2. ---

What do these have in common?

---

Reading the Story

Your data tells a story. Here are some common narratives and what they suggest:

Story: "The Defensive Player"

Pattern:

• Low submission attempts
• High defense rate
• Lots of neutral-ending rounds
• Few techniques at Level 4

What It Means: You're surviving but not advancing. You've prioritized not losing over winning.

Action: Start taking more risks. Accept that you'll get caught more often while you develop offense. Success rate will drop temporarily but you'll become more complete.

Story: "The Guard Player"

Pattern:

• Most submissions from guard positions
• Low pass success rate
• High sweep success rate
• Top positions under-documented

What It Means: You've developed strong bottom game but neglected top. When you sweep, you might end up back in guard because top isn't comfortable.

Action: Dedicate time to top positions. When you sweep, focus on maintaining rather than immediately going back to guard.

Story: "The One-Trick Pony"

Pattern:

• One submission accounts for most of your finishes
• Low success with other techniques
• Opponents start defending that one technique
• Technique chains are underdeveloped

What It Means: You've found something that works and over-rely on it. Training partners adapt.

Action: Develop techniques that chain off your main attack. If they defend A, go to B. Expand your game while keeping your strength.

Story: "The Grinder"

Pattern:

• High volume training
• Consistent sessions
• Slow but steady technique progression
• Success rates improving gradually

What It Means: You're putting in the work and making incremental progress. This is the most common and healthy pattern.

Action: Keep going. Consider occasional intensity variations to avoid plateaus. Trust the process.

Finding Your Story

Based on your data, what story emerges?

My story is:

---

Key evidence for this:

---

What this tells me I should do:

---

Correlation vs. Causation

Be careful about drawing conclusions. Some things to watch for:

False Correlations

"I do better in the gi" might actually be "I do better when I'm more rested" and you happen to train gi on rest days.

Check: Is there another variable that might explain the pattern?

Small Sample Size

Four weeks of data is a start, but some patterns need more time to confirm.

Check: Is this pattern consistent, or based on one or two sessions?

Confirmation Bias

You might see patterns that confirm what you already believe.

Check: Are you looking at all the data, or cherry-picking?

Advanced Pattern Recognition

As you accumulate more data, look for:

Seasonal Patterns

• Performance during competition prep
• Summer vs. winter training
• Holiday/travel impacts

Long-Term Trends

• Plateau periods
• Growth spurts
• Technique evolution over months/years

External Factor Correlations

• Work stress impact
• Life events
• Training partner changes
• Curriculum changes

Turning Patterns into Actions

Every pattern should suggest an action:

Your Assignment

1. Review all your logs from this 4-week cycle
2. Identify 2-3 patterns
3. For each pattern, determine what it suggests
4. Create one action item based on your patterns

Next lesson: Using your insights to set meaningful goals for your next training cycle.