Calculating Success Rates
Turn your tallies into actionable percentages for submissions, sweeps, and passes.
From Tallies to Percentages
Raw tallies tell you something, but percentages tell you more. "I attempted 10 sweeps" is less useful than "I landed 30% of my sweep attempts."
Success rates let you:
- Track improvement over time
- Compare different techniques
- Identify where to focus your training
The Basic Formula
For any category:
Success Rate = (Landed ÷ Attempted) × 100
Example: Submissions
This week's totals:
- Attempted: 15
- Landed: 3
- Defended: 8
Submission Success Rate = (3 ÷ 15) × 100 = 20%
You're finishing 20% of your submission attempts.
Example: Sweeps
This week's totals:
- Attempted: 12
- Landed: 5
Sweep Success Rate = (5 ÷ 12) × 100 = 41.7%
You're landing about 42% of your sweeps.
Defense Rate
For submissions, you also want to track how well you defend:
Defense Rate = Defended ÷ (Defended + Got Caught) × 100
If you defended 8 and got submitted 4 times:
Defense Rate = 8 ÷ (8 + 4) × 100 = 66.7%
You're successfully defending about 67% of submission attacks on you.
Weekly Calculation
At the end of each week, add up your daily totals and calculate rates.
Sample Weekly Summary
| Category | Att | Landed | Defended | Success % | Defense % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submissions | 18 | 4 | 10 | 22.2% | 71.4%* |
| Sweeps | 14 | 6 | - | 42.9% | - |
| Passes | 10 | 4 | - | 40.0% | - |
*Defense % uses different formula: 10 defended / (10 defended + 4 got caught)
What Do These Numbers Mean?
Benchmarks Are Personal
There's no universal "good" success rate because:
- It depends on who you're rolling with
- Your school's competitive level varies
- Different belt levels have different expectations
Your Own Baseline Matters Most
The power of tracking is watching YOUR numbers over time. If your sweep rate goes from 25% to 35% over two months, that's real progress - regardless of what the "ideal" rate might be.
Context Is Everything
Consider these two scenarios:
Scenario A:
- Rolling mostly with white belts
- 50% submission success rate
Scenario B:
- Rolling mostly with purple belts
- 15% submission success rate
Scenario B might actually represent better jiu-jitsu, despite the lower percentage.
Reading Your Data
High Attempts, Low Success
You're attacking but not finishing. Possible causes:
- Technique needs refinement
- Setups aren't good enough
- You're telegraphing
- Timing is off
Action: Focus on the details of your most-attempted techniques.
Low Attempts, High Success
You're selective but effective. This might mean:
- You only go when you have it
- You could be more offensive
- You're waiting too long
Action: Consider attacking more. Acceptable to have lower success rate if you're creating more opportunities.
Low Defense Rate
You're getting caught too often. Possible causes:
- Not recognizing danger early
- Defense techniques need work
- Putting yourself in bad positions
Action: Identify which submissions catch you most. Drill defenses.
Improving Rates Over Time
This is the goal. Week over week, month over month:
- Success rates climbing = techniques improving
- Defense rates climbing = getting harder to submit
Tracking by Technique (Advanced)
Once you're comfortable with category-level tracking, you can break it down further:
Submission Types
| Submission | Att | Landed | Success % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Armbar | 8 | 2 | 25% |
| Triangle | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| Kimura | 4 | 2 | 50% |
| Guillotine | 3 | 0 | 0% |
This shows your kimura is most effective, while guillotines aren't working.
Sweep Types
| Sweep | Att | Landed | Success % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scissor | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| Hip bump | 4 | 1 | 25% |
| Flower | 3 | 1 | 33% |
Your scissor sweep is reliable. Hip bump needs work.
Sample Analysis
Let's analyze a real month of data:
Month 1 Summary:
| Week | Sub % | Sweep % | Pass % | Defense % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15% | 30% | 25% | 60% |
| 2 | 18% | 28% | 30% | 65% |
| 3 | 20% | 35% | 28% | 70% |
| 4 | 22% | 38% | 35% | 72% |
Observations:
- Submission success climbing steadily (+7%)
- Sweep success improved significantly (+8%)
- Pass success improving (+10%)
- Defense getting stronger (+12%)
Conclusion: Overall positive trend. Biggest improvements in passing and defense.
Don't Over-Complicate
When starting out:
- Calculate weekly category rates (sub, sweep, pass)
- Note the trend (up, down, flat)
- Identify one area to focus on
Advanced technique-by-technique tracking is optional. Simple category tracking provides 80% of the value.
Your Week 2 Task
For this week:
- Track your sparring using the A/S/D system
- At the end of the week, calculate your success rates
- Record them in your Weekly Review
Next lesson, you'll complete your Week 2 review and prepare for technique tracking in Week 3.